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| Principal Investigator | |
| Principal Investigator's Name: | yanan lin |
| Institution: | Shenzhen Kangning Hospital |
| Department: | Geriatric |
| Country: | |
| Proposed Analysis: | We aim to develop a discriminative risk score model that are readily available to the general practitioner and can be usually used in general practice to predict the 5-, 9-, and 13-year individual dementia risk for male and female adults, respectively. For this purpose, we utilized Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and forward and backward stepwise multivariate Cox regression to screen optimal predictors, and then developed a risk score model for prediction of dementia risk. Finally, we compared the consistency between the risk score model and the Cox regression hazard model. Inclusion criteria：Those who were diagnosed with dementia during 13-year follow-up period. Exclusion criteria: Participants who had diagnosis of dementia or cognitive impairment before the baseline assessment were excluded. The following-up examination was 13-year. Exposure factors included demographic factors (age, ethnicity, education level, body mass index (BMI), employment), life styles (smoking, frequency of alcohol consumption, usually walking pace), and sleep exposure factors (sleep duration, early awakening, napping, sleeplessness or insomnia, and snoring), and comorbidities (respiratory disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension). The endpoints in the analyses were the diagnosis of dementia at first time during the follow-up examination. Statistic: Continuous exposure factors were presented as mean ± SD, and categorical exposure factors were presented as a number (percentage). The unpaired t-tests and χ² tests were used to compare differences between groups. Multivariate Cox regression model was applied to evaluate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Discrimination of Cox regression model was estimated by C-statistic. In order to further study the robustness and reliability of the model, we have established forecasting models for the 5-year, 9-year, and 13-year horizons. Point score system was used to compare and substitute the β-coefficients in the Cox models. The risk associated with each point was estimated using formula. This work was supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (grant No, 2020M670052), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (grant No, 2020A1515011469) and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (grant No, SZSM201812052). |
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