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Principal Investigator  
Principal Investigator's Name: YAO KUN
Institution: South China Normal University
Department: Psychology
Country:
Proposed Analysis: I plan to replicate the data analysis in the article "Individualized prognosis of cognitive decline and dementia in mild cognitive impairment based on plasma biomarker combinations" published in 2021.Different linear regression models were fit with the cognitive outcomes described above as response variables: a basic model (age, sex, education and baseline MMSE) and plasma biomarker models (the basic model plus seven different biomarker combinations including: Aβ42/Aβ40 only; P-tau181 only; NfL only; Aβ42/Aβ40 and P-tau181; Aβ42/Aβ40 and NfL; P-tau181 and NfL; or all three biomarkers). Because APOE ε4 is the strongest genetic risk factor for AD, we tested whether the addition of APOE ε4 genotype status (represented as a binary variable split based on individuals with at least one ε4 allele) to the basic model reduced the effectiveness of using plasma biomarkers. Models were compared using R2 and AIC values (lower is better). The best-fitting model was that which included the fewest predictors among the models within two points of the lowest AIC value; this procedure is well established for selecting the most parsimonious model based on AIC values32,33. The statistical significance of different models with the same outcome variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio test. Additionally, logistic regression models were fit with the clinical conversion outcomes described above as response variables, with the same set of predictors and the same method of comparison but with AUC instead of R2 as the performance metric; a sensitivity analysis was performed using Cox regression models, to ensure that the timing of conversion to AD did not affect model selection.
Additional Investigators